Flex Fox Fantasy

Fuck do I love the smell of a good trade in the morning. I have been preaching for weeks on the weekly podcast that teams need to get off their asses and make moves if they want to secure their playoff spots. After all, there are only 8 chairs to go around, unless you want to come rumble in the pit that is Europa for the chance at the first overall pick (a laudable goal as well). But you see, my constant bitching and moaning seems to have had at least some effect, as we have had some major block busters go down in the past 72 hours. Now, if I had a life, or a job at the moment, I would probably not be nearly as enthused, but since I currently possess neither, I am here to break down some of these deals for you. As always, I will be focusing on the “blockbuster” deals, the guys off the waiver wire for picks just don’t get my juices going. Let’s dive in!

1. The Gleyber Torres Trade
   
   The Juson  Alliance  receives:
   • Lance McCullers Jr. (SP - Majors - HOU)
   • Logan O'Hoppe (C - Majors - LAA)

   Midland Raccoons  receives:
   • Jacob Webb (RP - Majors - LAA)
   • Gleyber Torres (2B - Majors - NYY)
   
   Well alright, let’s get stuff off slowly, you know, a little foreplay before we get into the juicer stuff.  For Jemil, this deal is simple, you get Logan O’Hoppe an injured catcher, who before he was hurt, looked like one of the better young catchers in the game. O’Hoppe’s significance in this deal cannot be understated not because of his overall skill (although he should be Jemil’s catcher for years) but because it would allow Jemil to move off of Salvador Perez, a bigger name likely to fetch a better haul in what would become Jemil’s rebuilding efforts. Jemil also received Lance McCullers Jr. a pitcher who is often hurt more than he is healthy, but when healthy is solidly a top 40 pitcher with an elite curveball. The obvious question with him being out all year is how often will he be on the mound? Still, McCullers Jr. isn’t a terrible gamble to take for a rebuilding team.

   For the Raccoons, they receive a second basemen in Torres who is squarely in the “mid” category of second basemen in fantasy. He’s a solid but unspectacular player, who plays for the Yankees in a terrible lineup (when Aaron Judge isn’t in the middle of it) and who is likely going to give you 20 HR, and 80 RBI. 1.8 ppg is nothing to sneeze at when your current option is someone off the wire. The raccoons should be applauded for “going for it” when they are squarely in the playoff picture, but one has to wonder if a better second baseman will become available, or conversely, whether more additions are needed. 
   

   Grades

   Jemil: B+

   Raccoons: B-

2. The Zack Wheeler Deal
   
   Squirtle Squad receives:
   • Matt Strahm (RP - Majors - PHI)
   • LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B, RF - Majors - SF)
   • Zack Wheeler (SP - Majors - PHI)• The Juson  Alliance 's 2023 10th round Major League pick
   • The Juson  Alliance 's 2023 9th round Major League pick

   The Juson  Alliance  receives:
   • Alex Ramirez (NYM) (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Junior Caminero (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)• Squirtle Squad's 2023 2nd round Major League pick
   • Squirtle Squad's 2023 1st round Major League pick
   
   Alright, next up we have a blockbuster. For Jemil, he receives a prospect in Caminero who has probably had the most “helium” this season, rising for relative obscurity to become a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball. Caminero is on an Elly de la Cruz track, although physically he is different, but in the minors, he has shown the ability to hit for average and power with a solid eye at the plate. Its fair to say Caminero is a building block for Jemil moving forward. The one concern I have with him is that playing for the Rays means you get subjected to what we termed on the podcast as “fuckery” but basically Tampa has shown a lack of urgency when it comes to promoting and playing their top prospects (Kyle Manzardo, Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, and Curtis Mead come to mind). Now, Tampa did treat superprospect Wander Franco “typically” by placing him at shortstop and letting him play. Caminero if he continues his ascent could be handled more like Franco and less like the former group of prospects, but only time will tell. 

   Alex Ramirez should also not be overlooked as a solid top 100 prospect for the Mets. He’s been very solid in AA and given the state of the Mets outfield (I’m looking at you Mark Canha, and Tommy Pham, eyesight be damned), there is going to be plenty of opportunity moving forward for him to succeed. A James Outman outcome (hopefully without the long stretches of futility) is possible. 

   If there is one gripe I have with Jemil’s return it’s that he chose to prioritize majors picks over low minors picks. As a team firmly in a rebuild, which is what this trade signals, getting low minors picks is a must in any deal for elite talent (which Zack Wheeler is). It’s a lesson he will learn but it’s painful a low minors 1 pick wasn’t included here.

   For the Squad, getting Zack Wheeler is a big get, as Wheeler even in a down year has been a 12.1 ppg pitcher firmly within the top 30 pitching discussion. Given the Squad’s lengthy infirmary of injured pitchers and their place on the fringes of the playoff picture, this was a deal they needed to make. Wheeler bolsters a weak rotation and immediately becomes its ace. I would not be surprised if the Squad makes more moves to solidify their rotation, but the fact they see themselves as a playoff team and are willing to move their prospects for win now talent should be a warning to top teams likely to face them in the post season. I again applaud the Squad for making a move when on the fringes of contention. 
   

   Grades

   Jemil: A-

   Squad: A

3. The Shane Bieber Deal
   
   
   Kaos Reigns Supreme receives:
   • Shane Bieber (SP - Majors - CLE)• The Juson  Alliance 's 2023 4th round Low Minors pick

   The Juson  Alliance  receives:
   • Bryce Miller (SP - Majors - SEA)• Gordon Graceffo SP (STL) (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Daniel Espino (P - Low Minors - CLE)
   • Noelvi Marte (SS - Low Minors - SEA)• A Measure of Force's 2023 1st round Low Minors pick
   
   Jemi’s final big trade chip needed to be cashed in for a major haul, and it was. Jemil receives another consensus top 25 prospect in Noelvi Marte. Marte is a studly prospect in AAA with Cincinnati. Marte has shown all the tools you’d expect from a prospect of his caliber, the only question with him is where he will play. The Reds current infield of McClain, De la Cruz, India, and Steer/Votto seems full, but a talent like Marte’s typically finds its way onto a major league roster sooner rather than later, he’s the headliner here and he’s a damn good one. 

   Daniel Espino and Gordon Graceffo are top 100 pitching prospects with Espino being the higher upside more intriguing player. Espino, once considered a contender for the top pitching prospect in baseball, has elite stuff with high strikeout upside (think Gerritt Cole in his prime). The issue with Espino being his long injury track record, his injuries have been significant as he hasn’t thrown a starters workload in years and there have been calls for him to harness his elite stuff in the bullpen as a closer. However, Cleveland has typically stuck with pitchers and even though he is currently injured, Espino has the upside to be an ace, but it’s a riskier profile than most. Graceffo is a top 100 prospect with St. Louis who is dying for pitching. Graceffo has elite control and although he lacks the elite stuff of an ace, he firmly has 2/3 upside if he can harness his elite control at the major league level. The issue being that better prospects than him (Matthew Liberatore) have come up and been destroyed at the major league level. 

   Jemil also finally got a low majors pick that will likely fall in the 15-20 range, but with the deepest draft in years on tap, Jemil is likely to still get an elite talent that would have likely fallen in the top 5-10 of a normal draft year. 

   Finally, Jemil gets Bryce Miller, an extremely intriguing young pitcher who rides or dies with his fastball throwing it approximately 70% of the time. Despite being primarily fastball reliant, hitters haven’t been able to get on top of it due to its high vertical rise due to his unique arm slot angle. Miller’s upside is anyone’s guess, but he seems likely to be a number 2 starter which in our league is quite valuable and it's not out of the question that he is more valuable than Bieber in the years to come.

   So why make this deal? Well Bieber is a proven commodity who is having one of the worst years of his career, and yet, is still putting up 11.1 ppg. Bieber is a free agent, and my suspicion is that he will get the hell out of Cleveland into potentially a team like San Francisco who will improve his win total and likely allow him to suppress his flyball tendencies. There is no question that Miller could be better than Bieber on his own, which would make this deal a clear win for Jemil. However, elite starting pitching is costly in this league and Bieber is one of the few who has done it for years and been consistently elite. I trade upside for certainty in this deal and bank on a little upside myself. Hopefully Bieber can rebound and be better but the floor here is comforting.

   
   Grades

   Jemil: A

   Jeremiah: C+

4. The Tyler Glasnow Deal
   
   A Measure of Force receives:
   • Kirby Yates (RP - Majors - ATL)
   • Tyler Glasnow (SP - Majors - TB)

   The Illuminati  receives:
   • Wandy Peralta (RP - Majors - NYY)
   • Brandon Williamson (SP - Majors - CIN)
   • Anthony Volpe (SS - Majors - NYY)• Jorbit Vivas (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Colt Keith (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Cade Cavalli (P - Low Minors - WAS)
   
   We conclude with a deal not involving Jemil, shocking I know. Mike moves Tyler Glasnow, for a return basically centered upon Anthony Volpe, (with all respect to Peralta, Williamson, and the prospects, I’m not sold on any of Keith, Cavalli, or Vivas being big fantasy contributors). Volpe has been with the Yankees all season for good and for bad (and it's mostly been bad until recently). Now, in dynasty Volpe is still highly regarded for the tools that helped get him to the majors, and there’s reason to believe he will figure it out and become a top 10 fantasy shortstop and fantasy mainstay on Mike’s roster, so Mike is clearly playing the long game here and banking on young talent which rebuilding teams should do.

   For Newton this deal is simple, other elite pitchers were flying on the board at insane prices, and he needed to get an ace to round out his rotation. Glasnow doesn’t come without his own risk though and he has recently had Tommy John and has traditionally been more limited in his workload than a typical ace. But there is no questioning the strikeout upside, and on a per-inning basis, Glasnow is a top 20 pitcher, the question being, how long will he be on the mound both in terms of injuries and in terms of innings per start. As Garth mentioned Tampa has let Glasnow’s pitch count rise into the 90’s but again we are talking about a team who infamously pulled Blake Snell (a better ace with less injury questions) in a do or die playoff game because the analytics supported it. Tampa will always be a simp to the analytics and that will mean Glasnow’s workload will always be somewhat of a question mark. Still, a trend in this article is to give credit to teams pushing all in when they are in contention, and this would qualify as that type of move.

   In the end this deal comes down to Volpe vs Glasnow, and while Garth might win the day today, it's questionable whether long term this deal might make sense. A Glasnow injury and a flameout in the playoffs this year combined with a Volpe ascension in 2024 and beyond could make this deal one Garth regrets making down the line. 

   Grades

   Mike: B+

   Newton: B