Flex Fox Fantasy

Man, let me know tell you this league is really picking up. It’s been, what do the kids say? Cray? It’s been cray around here, from LM taking a two-week sabbatical and walking out on league duties to the massive trades that have been going down, there has been no shortage of content worthy events. So, here I am, slaving away, bringing you part 2 of what will likely be a three- or four-part series recapping all the major trades that have taken place. Let’s get dirty and dive right into it (yes you read that correctly).

1. The “Ben Sells Off Trade”
   
   4th Quarter Jimmy Butler receives:
   • Alexis Diaz (RP - Majors - CIN)
   • Paul Goldschmidt (1B - Majors - STL)
   • Tommy Kahnle (RP - Majors - NYY)• The Starboys's 2023 3rd round Low Minors pick

   The Starboys receives:
   • Frankie Montas (SP - Majors - NYY)
   • Edwin Diaz (RP - Majors - NYM)• Taj Bradley (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Mason Black (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)• 4th Quarter Jimmy Butler's 2023 1st round Low Minors pick
   
   Alright, since this is my platform, I’m going to go off on a bit of rant so bear with me. This is a bad trade for a multitude of reasons, so I’ll start with the obvious, the return. Now, I don’t know about you but if I am moving a former MVP (albeit on a down season) and one of the top closers who is in his mid-20’s in a dynasty league, I’m going to want more than a mid-rotation starting pitching prospect and some injured filler, but that’s just me. Focusing purely on the return, it's underwhelming. Goldschmidt plays a position that has left fantasy owners wanting for more this season and while Goldy hasn’t been himself, he still has been solid enough to warrant a strong return. 

   Alexis Diaz similarly has been lights out in his closer role for the Reds and is firmly in his mid-20’s. Now, I have trumpeted the fact that in a saves + holds league closers have almost no value, which is true, however, there are a few exceptions, and I believe that a top 5 closer in his prime would be one of them. 

   In exchange for these players Ben got Taj Bradley (a strong but likely capped pitching prospect) who not only has shown inconsistent results (I watched his Braves start and while it was the Braves, the start was unremarkable). To make matters worse, he plays for the Rays who have already shown the fuckery they plan to exert on his career by sending him down after his first two starts (which were great) and he has not been the same pitcher since. Given that he pitches for the Rays and his major league performance hasn’t been stellar, it's hard to see Bradley being more than a 2/3 at this point. That could change of course but it seems unlikely that he would get the innings and frankly strikeouts required. 

   Frankie Montas and Edwin Diaz were nice when they were healthy, but they aren’t healthy, and Diaz specifically is coming back from one of the most brutal injuries an athlete can have. Would you count on either of these guys just slotting back into their old roles in 2024? I would take the under on that bet.  Finally, the LM 1 is nice to get for Ben, but it belongs to arguably the 2nd best team in the league currently, which by my calculations makes the pick likely to fall in the 18-20 range. In a draft this deep it’s a valuable pick, but still not the high end pick you would hope comes with a return for players of this caliber. 

   Now, the 2nd reason this deal is bad, (pauses and reaches for his trading for dummies book given to him by the anti-pope himself Flex Fox and turns to page 2) it says in here you can get more for a commodity (in this case a player) by driving up the bidding by providing the commodity to multiple markets (in this case teams) to elevate the price of the commodity. Good thing Ben said he wasn’t moving guys except his RPs. Oh wait, that would be the opposite of the book, shoot. Trading 101 here, you want multiple teams in on your guys to help elevate the return or at least give you the option to pick the best return for yourself. By saying he would only move his RP and then completing this deal, Ben closed off the bidding entirely, which meant Tillo could low ball him and Ben basically had zero inclination to do better in the marketplace. Sure, I don’t have concrete proof Ben didn’t shop these guys, but the return coupled with the quick turnaround following his declaration that he wouldn’t move anyone, but RP is damning evidence his trigger finger got itchy. Sure, he may be limited by time IRL etc. But it doesn’t take long to throw a message on slack saying you’ll take offers on Goldy, let the offers pour in, then sort through them on your own time. It’s a shame because I think Ben would have gotten more had he shopped his players.

   For Tillo, I’ll be brief, but this was a move he needed to make. I’ve been calling for such moves on the pod for weeks, and its nice to see Tillo go make a move to solidify his already elite team. He didn’t really need Diaz, but you know what they say, “you can never have too much pitching”. Goldy fills a big need for Tillo and is the true get here. Josh Bell wasn’t cutting it, and Goldy represents a massive upgrade over Bell. Now, is this enough to challenge Ryan? We will see, but its not hyperbole to say Tillo has firmly put himself in the drivers seat for the top challenger to Ryan’s regular season throne.

   Grades

   Ben: D+

   Tillo: A

2. Newton pushes his remaining chips into the middle
   
   The Juson  Alliance  receives:
   • John Means (SP - Majors - BAL)• Denzer Guzman (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Daniel Vazquez (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Armando Cruz (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Rayne Doncon (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Hyun-il Choi (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Liover Peguero (SS - Low Minors - ARI)
   • Matt Mervis (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)
   • Royce Lewis (SS - High Minors - MIN)
   • Nick Gonzales (SS - Low Minors - PIT)
   • Luis GIl (P - Low Minors - NYY)• Kaos Reigns Supreme 's 2023 1st round High Minors pick
   • Kaos Reigns Supreme 's 2023 3rd round Low Minors pick
   • A Measure of Force's 2023 3rd round Major League pick

   A Measure of Force receives:
   • Kyle Schwarber (LF - Majors - PHI)
   • Carlos Correa (SS - Majors - MIN)• The Illuminati 's 2023 5th round Low Minors pick
   • The Juson  Alliance 's 2023 5th round Low Minors pick
   • The Juson  Alliance 's 2023 8th round Major League pick
   
   Fuck I love a good pissing contest. If Tillo is in the driver's seat for Ryan’s top challenger, Newton is driving his car into the side of Tillo’s slightly behind him (Fast 11 script anyone?). Newton basically said “I’m pot committed it's time to shove” and what a return his shove gets. He lands Carlos Correa and Kyle Schwarber. Now, let’s be clear, Schwarber and Correa have been two of the biggest disappointments in fantasy this season. But they both have track records of elite (2-2.5 ppg production) which is what Newton is banking on. Correa and Schwarber are both firmly in their primes (at 28 and 30 respectively). If Newton can coax out even average career performance from both they will be massive upgrades over the players, he had been using (remember Newton traded Volpe and was using waiver fodder at SS/LF). We know how I feel about going for it when you’re close, and that’s two of the top four teams pushing their chips into the middle. On that basis alone Newton deserves a strong grade, but Newton also got good players who can help him for multiple seasons. Schwarber and Correa should be solid contributors in 2024 as well, and that bodes well for a team that firmly believes it can contend in 2023/2024.

   For Jemil, this is a lot of quantity and I’m not sure it’s the right move for that reason. Jemil is firmly overstocked in his High Minors as he can only keep 8 players and has much more than that because of this trade. Royce Lewis (perpetually hurt) and Matt Mervis/Nick Gonzales (inconsistent performance) are the gets here, but they all come with significant question marks regarding their long-term outlook. For me, if I were trading these players, I would rather shoot for one stud prospect, rather than go for quantity like this. Obviously, I don’t know what the marketplace for mid-tier talent like this looks like, so maybe it’s a buyer’s market after all. 

   Grades: 

   Newton: A-

   Jemil: B-

3. RKR goes for the playoffs
   
   The Mad King receives:
   • Daniel Palencia (undefined - Majors - null)• Bash Brothers's 2023 3rd round Major League pick

   Kaos Reigns Supreme receives:
   • James Paxton (SP - Majors - BOS)• Kaos Reigns Supreme's 2023 8th round Major League pick
   
   
   Kaos Reigns Supreme receives:
   • Triston McKenzie (SP - Majors - CLE)• Brock Porter SP (TEX) (undefined - undefined Minors - undefined)• Bash Brothers's 2023 6th round Major League pick

   Bash Brothers receives:
   • Bryce Elder (SP - Majors - ATL)
   • James Paxton (SP - Majors - BOS)• The Illuminati 's 2023 1st round Major League pick
   
   I put these trades together since they are clearly linked. From my side, I acquired Paxton from Neeson, and flipped him to RKR for the currently injured Tristan McKenzie. McKenzie is a high upside arm that has top 20 upside as we have seen. However, he’s currently injured and his outlook is marred by his partially torn UCL, he appears to be going the Tanaka route of rest and rehab, more recently, this worked for Griffen Canning, but it appears its only a matter of time before he goes under the knife. Thankfully, I won’t be competing for a playoff spot seriously until 2024/2025 and he fits in that timeline even with Tommy John at the end of the season. 

   Brock Porter is the real get here, and it cost me Paxton, but it’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make. Porter is valuable to me as a prospect who will stay in A ball for the entirety of this season allowing me to keep him in the low minors. Porter is a top 70 prospect who has struck out more than a batter per inning in A ball and seems primed to move quickly next year through the Rangers system. Porter has ace upside but likely settles in as a strong 2 with decent strikeout upside (think Tyler Glasnow if everything clicks).

   For RKR, this move is all about the playoffs, acquiring Elder and Paxton solidifies a rotation that was dealing with an infirmary of injuries. Elder and Paxton, while not aces, have pitched like aces this season. While I do expect some regression here from Elder, if he and Paxton continue to perform at even a 10.0 ppg pace it deepens RKR’s rotation enough to likely earn him a playoff spot and stand as a strong upset contender in the first round. Again, a move like this is all about getting into the playoffs and trying to catch lightning in a bottle, but I respect the commitment to winning and think that Elder specifically should be a rotation pillar for years to come for RKR.

   Lastly, the implications of this deal on RKR’s LM 1 pick which I own are also significant. RKR goes from what was likely a top Europa Contender (with a likely top 5 pick) to a playoff team likely making the pick fall in the 13-16 range depending on performance. It’s a tough blow, and if McKenzie doesn’t heal up or find his form in years to come and/or Porter busts it will be a tough pill for me to swallow. It’s a gamble for sure, one I am hoping pays off.

   Grades

   RKR: B+

   Jeremiah: C+